Polysilicon prices continue to decline, with downward price expectations for solar cells [SMM Weekly Review]

Polysilicon: This week, the price index for N-type polysilicon was 35.11 yuan/kg. The price of N-type recharging polysilicon ranged from 35-37 yuan/kg, while the price of N-type mixed polysilicon was 31-35 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices continued to decline, and polysilicon manufacturers may have plans to increase production in the future. Wafer prices weakened, and wafer companies' enthusiasm for polysilicon procurement decreased. Crystal pulling plants showed a clear intention to drive down prices, and bearish sentiment persisted in the market. Some market participants believed that prices might hit bottom in July-August.

Wafer: This week, the price of N-type 183 wafers was 0.90-0.92 yuan/piece, 210R wafers were priced at 1.05-1.07 yuan/piece, and 210 wafers were priced at 1.25-1.28 yuan/piece. Wafer prices continued to weaken, with 183 wafer shipments facing more significant obstacles. Second- and third-tier manufacturers generally quoted prices at 0.9 yuan/piece, while prices from major manufacturers were slightly higher but also weakening overall. Demand for 210R wafers was robust, and prices remained relatively firm. However, influenced by weak end-use demand, the market remained bearish.

Cell: For P-type cells, PERC182 market quotations ranged from 0.265-0.27 yuan/W, with a shrinking market share, primarily driven by overseas demand. For N-type cells, firstly, in the TOPCon segment, the mainstream price for 183N was 0.24-0.25 yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price for 210RN was 0.265 yuan/W, and the quotation for 210N was 0.26-0.265 yuan/W. Secondly, in the HJT segment, the mainstream quotation for HJT30% silver-coated copper (with an efficiency of 25% or above) was 0.34-0.35 yuan/W, with some high-efficiency transactions at 0.36 yuan/W. Overall, prices remained stable.

Continuing the trend of TOPCon size and structure market dynamics from last week, demand-driven price differentiation has deviated from cost levels. The 210N reached a new historical low with a transaction price of 0.26 yuan/W and is currently sliding towards 0.255 yuan/W, while the 210RN price remains stable at 0.265 yuan/W due to order support. The direction of subsequent price changes will depend on factors such as comprehensive cost, supply-demand balance, and sentiment after the exhibition, with a downward risk expected.

Module: During the SNEC exhibition this week, PV module prices remained stable. The mainstream transaction prices for N-type 182mm modules in centralized projects were 0.666-0.675 yuan/W, and for N-type 210mm modules, they were 0.681-0.69 yuan/W. The price for TOPCon distributed 182mm modules was 0.691-0.697 yuan/W. Market trading sentiment was poor, with a wait-and-see attitude prevailing. It is expected that prices will still have downside room in the future.

EVA: This week, the price of PV-grade EVA ranged from 10,000-10,400 yuan/mt. Prices for foaming-grade and cable-grade EVA remained stable at lower levels. Film companies purchased based on immediate needs, and some petrochemical plants on the supply side were expected to undergo maintenance and production conversion, leading to an overall tight supply. However, due to lower module scheduled production on the demand side, which fell short of expectations, the market exhibited a pattern of weak supply and demand, with PV material prices remaining weak and stable.

Film: The mainstream price range for EVA film is 12,300-12,500 yuan/mt, while the price range for EPE film is 13,900-14,000 yuan/mt. On the demand side, module scheduled production is declining, indicating weak demand. On the cost side, the price of PV-grade EVA remains stable but weak, which has somewhat weakened the cost support for film. It is expected that film prices will remain stable in the near future.

POE: The domestic delivery-to-factory price of POE remains stable at 12,000-14,000 yuan/mt. Under the dual pressure of gradually weakening demand and the successive release of new capacity, it is expected that the price of PV-grade POE will be under pressure and decline.

PV glass: This week, some PV glass enterprises continued to lower their quotations. As of now, the mainstream quotation for 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass in China is 12.0 yuan/m², with some enterprises reducing their quotations to 11.5 yuan/m². The mainstream quotation for 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass is 19.5 yuan/m², and the mainstream quotation for 2.0mm back-coated PV glass is 11.0 yuan/m². This week, domestic PV glass quotations continued to decline. As of now, the quotation for 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass is 11.5-12.2 yuan/m². This week, the inventory levels of domestic glass enterprises continued to rise due to reduced demand for modules, with some enterprises' inventories approaching full capacity. To destock, glass enterprises continued to lower their quotations this week, leading to a downward shift in the overall market quotation center. Subsequently, under the trend of increasing losses, glass enterprises' expectations for production cuts have strengthened.

High-purity quartz sand: This week, domestic quotations for high-purity quartz sand dropped slightly. The current market quotations are as follows: 60,000-68,000 yuan/mt for inner-layer sand, 31,000-42,000 yuan/mt for middle-layer sand, and 17,000-24,000 yuan/mt for outer-layer sand. The quotations for middle-layer and inner-layer sand have slightly decreased. This week, the demand from domestic crucible enterprises continues to decline, further reducing their willingness to purchase quartz sand. Moreover, the recent drop in the price of imported quartz sand has significantly accelerated the decline in the price of domestically produced sand. On the supply side, the operation of domestically produced sand enterprises has remained basically stable recently, with some production lines slightly increasing their operating loads, leading to a slight increase in overall production. Additionally, the imports of high-purity sand from regions other than the US have slightly increased recently, showing a trend of surplus supply. Therefore, the price of sand has mainly declined, and it is expected that the price of sand will continue to show a downward trend in the future due to the weak operation of wafer demand.

》View the SMM PV Industry Chain Database